Date Published: 
10/30/2011

Just earlier this week it seemed as though all indicators were pointing forwards, ‎and upwards.  Greece, which has been on the edge in a crisis was to benefit ‎from a complex, pan-European deal in which it got capitalized, many of its old ‎bonds  were replaced with new bonds (at 50 cents on the dollar) that had a ‎European guarantee and therefore could be at lower, more attractive interest ‎rates.

Then came the Greek announcement of the referendum.  This was a surprise ‎twist.  While it may make sense in the complex Greek political calculus of knife-‎edge parliamentary votes, the electorate in Greece is angry.  Government has ‎been cutting funding, laying off people, reducing wages, and overseeing a ‎serious reduction in the size of the Greek economy and GDP.  These are not ‎good conditions to ask everyone how they feel about something.

The world cares because if the European economy sinks into recession, the ‎world may follow it.  The US is in fragile economic times, Chinese growth is ‎slowing, Thailand is under water from flooding, and Japan is still struggling to ‎recover from its natural and nuclear disasters.

The referendum question, no matter how Greece asks it, will almost certainly ‎become a lightning rod for Greek dissatisfaction with cuts, the German-led ‎prescription of austerity, and with the European dream itself.  A loss would be ‎hard to deal with, and may trigger other events, like Greece departing the Euro, ‎or even the Euro eventually receding or failing.  Angela Merkel, Germany’s ‎chancellor, reminded everyone a few days ago that the European dream was ‎important – it was part of a history changing plan to make Europe integrated and ‎one, on a continent that launched two world wars.  While the economic ‎situation is the focus today, if the dream is dismantled it could have far-ranging ‎ramifications.

 

Risk Management Perspective: 

Just when it looked like there might be light at the end of the tunnel, it seems as ‎though the tunnel is longer, and the light may have been illusory.  The risks here ‎are:

a) a world economic slowdown;
b) possible major tumult in Greece and ‎potentially Europe; and
c) Governments around the world who have to react to ‎it.  ‎

 

Industry Group: 
Government Departments
Industry: 
Crown Corporations
Industry: 
Government
Industry: 
Other
Country: 
Rest of Europe
Risk Class: 
Strategic
Risk Class: 
Financial
Risk Type: 
Political
Risk Type: 
Financial Environment - Capital & Credit
Risk Type: 
Economic Conditions

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