Just earlier this week it seemed as though all indicators were pointing forwards, and upwards. Greece, which has been on the edge in a crisis was to benefit from a complex, pan-European deal in which it got capitalized, many of its old bonds were replaced with new bonds (at 50 cents on the dollar) that had a European guarantee and therefore could be at lower, more attractive interest rates.
Then came the Greek announcement of the referendum. This was a surprise twist. While it may make sense in the complex Greek political calculus of knife-edge parliamentary votes, the electorate in Greece is angry. Government has been cutting funding, laying off people, reducing wages, and overseeing a serious reduction in the size of the Greek economy and GDP. These are not good conditions to ask everyone how they feel about something.
The world cares because if the European economy sinks into recession, the world may follow it. The US is in fragile economic times, Chinese growth is slowing, Thailand is under water from flooding, and Japan is still struggling to recover from its natural and nuclear disasters.
The referendum question, no matter how Greece asks it, will almost certainly become a lightning rod for Greek dissatisfaction with cuts, the German-led prescription of austerity, and with the European dream itself. A loss would be hard to deal with, and may trigger other events, like Greece departing the Euro, or even the Euro eventually receding or failing. Angela Merkel, Germany’s chancellor, reminded everyone a few days ago that the European dream was important – it was part of a history changing plan to make Europe integrated and one, on a continent that launched two world wars. While the economic situation is the focus today, if the dream is dismantled it could have far-ranging ramifications.
Just when it looked like there might be light at the end of the tunnel, it seems as though the tunnel is longer, and the light may have been illusory. The risks here are:
a) a world economic slowdown;
b) possible major tumult in Greece and potentially Europe; and
c) Governments around the world who have to react to it.