Date Published: 
11/24/2011

As a result of low confidence in the European ability to address the situation, ‎bond interest rates are rising as investors demand increasing risk premiums. ‎

Increases in the interest rates from historic 2-3% rates to the now common 5-7% ‎rates are wreaking havoc on countries from Spain to Italy.  As the interest rates ‎double, the payments on foreign debt double, and if they were 10% of ‎government revenues before, they go to 20%, and crowd out programs, leading ‎to widespread cutbacks and austerity programs, which lead to less service and ‎lower employment, which lead to unhappy populations, which can leads to….‎

A possible ramification of this is that Governments defaulting on debt is ‎becoming a more likely scenario.  This has the consequence of undermining ‎banks that are among the largest holders of government debt.  The prospect of ‎looming bank failures is creating a situation in Europe now where banks are ‎increasingly unwilling to lend to other banks in overnight situations, which is ‎leading to credit crisis worries such as were seen in the US in 2008.‎

Another scenario, becoming more and more widely discussed, is the possibility ‎of some countries leaving the Euro currency, which if not managed well could ‎have a catastrophic effect and lead to the collapse of the currency.

 

Risk Management Perspective: 

The economic pressures on the Euro are becoming intense, and the political will ‎to resolve a complex financial situation seems compromised by the governance ‎structures in place.  This is already a severe storm, and a failure of the Euro ‎currency would put everyone in extraordinarily uncharted waters.

 

Industry Group: 
Other
Industry: 
Government
Country: 
Rest of Europe
Risk Class: 
Strategic
Risk Class: 
Financial
Risk Type: 
Political
Risk Type: 
Financial Environment - Capital & Credit
Risk Type: 
Economic Conditions

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