Quickly and strongly in a rare show of unity, China’s ministries of commerce and foreign affairs, and the central bank of the country, refuted the U.S. Senate vote that opened a week of debate on the Currency Exchange Rate Oversight Reform Act of 2011, which would allow the U.S. government to slap countervailing duties on products from countries found to be subsidizing their exports by undervaluing their currencies.
US legislators argue that the American economy have lost many jobs as a result of undervalue currencies against the US dollar, pointing mostly at the Chinese Yuan. Moreover it will help Washington to close a $250 billion trade gap.
China’s exchange rate has long been a sticking point between China and the US. The Yuan has appreciated some 30% against the dollar since it was revalued in 2005, although many say that it is still valued too low and still gives Chinese exporters an unfair competitive advantage in the marketplace. The bill contemplates tariffs in under-priced imported goods.
The bill is still a long ways off. In order for the bill to become a law it has first to pass the Senate. Passage of the bill by the Senate would send it to the House. President Obama will then be the last to decide whether to sign the bill. The calculus for all will be either a) “punish China, gain domestic points and risk trade friction or worse” or b) “be pushy but restrained with China, risk voter wrath for not doing enough on jobs and trade in the midst of a fragile US recovery and expose yourself to opposition attack.” It will be a delicate balancing act which can easily go awry, especially given the hostile state of US politics.
While trying to push the American economy forward, Legislators might cause a Chinese reaction that can affect almost everyone and almost all organizations in many ways and markets:
- Tariffs will mean that prices and costs will most likely go up.
- Manufacturing and retail, two pillars of the economy, may see short, medium or long-term impacts that could lead to lower consumer spending, lower employment, lower tax revenues, and more deficit stimulus
- What might be the implications on inflation and interest rates?
- Might our companies be at risk from being sideswiped by this? Is there a way we can prepare for turbulent times ahead?