Date Published: 
06/11/2012

There is uncertainty about whether there is a housing bubble in Canada. If it ‎existed, whether it’s bursting would a) occur, b) be gentle, or c) be sudden and ‎disruptive.  And then there’s the big question, what should one do?‎

This is a particular concern for financial system regulators who face a complex ‎balancing act, including several issues:‎

  • Ensuring that markets are acting rationally (i.e. not showing sustained large ‎distortions like bubbles).‎
  • Ensuring that firms in those markets are acting sensibly (i.e. not taking risks ‎that weaken themselves unduly, or, worse, the overall system.‎
  • Helping consumers and society to benefit from a generally stable, ‎dependable banking system. ‎

There is a debate going on in the industry over whether more regulations, ‎guidelines and supervision are appropriate, or whether those actions may ‎themselves trigger more issues.  One conversation is around proposed guidelines ‎for mortgage renewals, which might make some mortgage holders ineligible for ‎renewal even if they never missed a payment (say, if their financial circumstances ‎had deteriorated).  While some argue the change is reasonable, others argue that ‎that regulatory change could, by itself, trigger more defaults.


Risk Management Perspective: 

What Executives and Risk Managers Should Take Away From This:‎

  • Industry participants are engaged in a complex conversation about ‎circumstances, causes, and effects, and there are lots of regulatory options ‎are on the table; and ‎
  • If there is a bubble and if it bursts in a disorderly way, firms with strong ‎financial positions will be in the best positions.‎


This is a good time to be continuing to buttress financial strength, and not taking ‎unnecessary risks.

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Industry Group: 
Large Enterprises
Industry: 
Banking
Country: 
Canada
Risk Class: 
Strategic
Risk Class: 
Financial
Risk Type: 
Regulatory
Risk Type: 
Demand/Supply Change
Risk Type: 
Financial Environment - Capital & Credit
Risk Type: 
Economic Conditions

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