There is uncertainty about whether there is a housing bubble in Canada. If it existed, whether it’s bursting would a) occur, b) be gentle, or c) be sudden and disruptive. And then there’s the big question, what should one do?
This is a particular concern for financial system regulators who face a complex balancing act, including several issues:
- Ensuring that markets are acting rationally (i.e. not showing sustained large distortions like bubbles).
- Ensuring that firms in those markets are acting sensibly (i.e. not taking risks that weaken themselves unduly, or, worse, the overall system.
- Helping consumers and society to benefit from a generally stable, dependable banking system.
There is a debate going on in the industry over whether more regulations, guidelines and supervision are appropriate, or whether those actions may themselves trigger more issues. One conversation is around proposed guidelines for mortgage renewals, which might make some mortgage holders ineligible for renewal even if they never missed a payment (say, if their financial circumstances had deteriorated). While some argue the change is reasonable, others argue that that regulatory change could, by itself, trigger more defaults.
What Executives and Risk Managers Should Take Away From This:
- Industry participants are engaged in a complex conversation about circumstances, causes, and effects, and there are lots of regulatory options are on the table; and
- If there is a bubble and if it bursts in a disorderly way, firms with strong financial positions will be in the best positions.
This is a good time to be continuing to buttress financial strength, and not taking unnecessary risks.